During the 1990s, the Balkans were the scene of Europe's deadliest wars and worst atrocities since World War II. More recently, the region has been relatively peaceful, but many of its problems have merely been kicked down the road. Now, one of the most dangerous is coming to a head, with a United Nations deadline on Monday for resolving Kosovo's political status.
Getting Kosovo wrong could plunge the Balkans back into turmoil. To avoid that, Serbia and Russia will have to quickly decide that they have more to gain from stability - and good relations with Europe and the United States - than from whipping up old hatreds.
Kosovo has been under international trusteeship since 1999 when NATO went to war to reverse Slobodan Milosevic's brutal campaign to drive out Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority. While formally Kosovo is still a province of Serbia, there can be no question of returning it to Belgrade's control.
Earlier this year, international mediators worked out a reasonable compromise that acknowledges both the desire of Kosovo's Albanians for independence and the Serb minority's legitimate fear of persecution.
The international community will still oversee an independent Kosovo, and ensure that the Serb minority is protected and guaranteed substantial autonomy.
Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders are prepared to accept the deal. Unfortunately, the Serbian government and its patrons in Moscow are not.
Russia's position is cynical. It has no power to regain Kosovo for Serbia and the Kremlin plays its own secessionist games in Georgia and Moldova. President Vladimir Putin has simply been using Kosovo as a handy stick to beat the West and to remind the world that Russia still wields a Security Council veto.
Serbia's hopes for a brighter future depend on turning its back on Milosevic's nightmarish legacy and repairing relations with the European Union and NATO. But this is a hard idea to sell in Serbian politics, and no government will risk it as long as Russia is feeding illusions of nostalgic nationalism.
If Moscow makes good on its threats to veto the compromise, Kosovo's leaders will almost certainly declare independence. Most Western governments say that they would recognize the new (and militarily vulnerable) Kosovo. This would clearly not be a happy situation. But neither would the alternative: leaving Western peacekeepers sitting on the powder keg of an angry and frustrated Albanian majority.
The better approach, for all involved, would be an internationally supervised independence recognized by the United Nations. It is not too late for Moscow to play a more constructive role, and to bring Serbia along with it.
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