Goran Svilanovic
As Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic started talks on Wednesday in Britain, ahead of flying to the US, Goran Svilanovic, a former Yugoslav Foreign Minister, said that Kosovo’s independence was a matter of months rather than weeks away, and that it was closely related to events in Serbia and to its relations with the EU. To read more, seehttp://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/6762/
Svilanovic, now an official of the Stability Pact for South-eastern Europe, said that the timeframe for independence was linked in the first instance to the adoption of a report by a Troika of international mediators which is due to be submitted to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon by Monday, December 10.
Four months of talks, mediated by the Troika, ended in deadlock last week, with Kosovo’s Albanians insisting on independence, and Serbia not prepared to go beyond offering broad autonomy.
The independence timetable, according to Svilanovic, was also depended on further international moves, including a session of the UN Security Council on December 19, and in the slightly longer term to Serbia’s presidential vote, tentatively expected in early 2008, as well as the development of Belgrade’s relations with the EU.
Serbia is hoping to follow up its recent initialling of a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU by signing the document which is an important step on the way to its eventual EU membership.
“If it turns out that there are no avenues for new talks over Kosovo and if they [the Kosovo Albanians] declare independence, the EU will probably only acknowledge that move as a fact,” rather than actively support it, Svilanovic told Balkan Insight.
He also said that “only then…maybe in months…will some countries start to make their moves about what they have heard from Pristina and recognize [Kosovo’s] independence.”
“At some point, gradually, some EU member countries, perhaps the most powerful ones will also do the same, “ Svilanovic added, referring to recognition of Kosovo’s independence.
Another former top official, Serbia’s ex-Prime Minister Zoran Zivkovic, said that Kosovo independence was imminent “regardless of whether happens this December” or later.
Zivkovic, who served as prime minister after the assassination of his predecessor, Zoran Djindjic, in 2003, told Balkan Insight that “the only avenue is a partition of the province either through open or secret talks.”
“Kosovo’s north and some areas in the east may stay within Serbia, and the rest can be independent and that’s clearly negotiable. This is not the best nor the most democratic solution, but it offers both sides something so they can achieve some of their goals,” he said.
Zivkovic warned that “when Kosovo declares independence”, Serbs from the province’s northern and eastern parts “may opt to unilaterally declare they want to stay within Serbia, using exactly the same arguments as Kosovo Albanians” about their right to self-determination.
According to official data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 200,000 Kosovo Serbs and other non-Albanians fled Kosovo following the end of the 1999 war, fearing reprisal attacks from extremists.
Many of the 100,000 Kosovo Serbs live in the northern and eastern areas, just outside Serbia, while the rest remains scattered in enclaves throughout Kosovo.
Serbia has insisted on its right to retain Kosovo as part of its territory, but Zivkovic described “Belgrade’s hiding behind the principle of sovereignty” as “lame”.
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